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Usually, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a straightforward formula. It often acts as a type of apology. We regret we underestimated your squad in our pre-campaign projections.

On paper, it's a direct trajectory: the coach who engineered the biggest turnaround receives the award. In reality, it creates an annual argument about expectations and whether we're genuinely rewarding excellent coaching or just the greatest shock.

However this year's field is fundamentally different. The pool of contenders is exceptionally strong. It has been the season of resurgences. The NFL has been messy, with recent division winners declining and recent strugglers ascending in unison. Under an typical season, Sean Payton leading the Denver Broncos to the summit of the AFC would make him the overwhelming favorite. But in such a turbulent and fun year, he's up against several other outstanding candidates.

Below is how the projected vote ought to be structured.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Coach of the Year voters adore QBs. This is a tradition. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. Should you transform a quarterback, you're well on your way to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach hasn't just corrected Caleb Williams; he's unleashed him. In the right system, the QB has been afforded the opportunity to display his otherworldly ability. Since Week 9, the Chicago offense rank fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a lucky run – it's sustained dominance. Under Johnson, the quarterback has become increasingly decisive, less careless, and has eagerly submitted to the gameplan instead of freelancing. It is an attack constructed solely in Johnson's vision: a physical ground attack, a consistent helping of play-action and a creative aerial game that springs wide-open targets consistently. Williams has taken advantage. And when easy reads weren't there, he's been capable to spin big plays out of broken plays.

The coach arrived to Chicago with a clear offensive vision. Virtually each gamble – overhauling the trenches, featuring the tight ends, transforming the QB into a rhythm thrower – has paid off. This is uncommon for a rookie head coach. And it's even more uncommon still for a coach who entered the building with the kind of expectations Johnson did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the most sought-after candidate on the coaching carousel. But when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are zero sure things. Somehow, he has lived up to expectations – and even exceeded them. He's proven not just to be a scheme wizard but the kind of culture builder that can inject fresh energy into an franchise.

During a normal season, Johnson would be the runaway favorite. But this isn't a typical season!

Where his case comes slightly unstuck is on defense. The Bears currently sit in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are living on takeaways, and turnovers are notoriously inconsistent. Defensive minds can stress creating turnovers, but no one can ensure it. Johnson is on the list because the offense is real. He's ranked lower because variance is doing an outsized share of the defensive heavy lifting. If not for a couple bounces of the ball, the Bears would be two wins worse off. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the foundation is in place for sustained success. However Johnson comes up just short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar situation to Johnson. He's another first-time leader who has masterminded a dramatic resurgence. During the crucial final weeks of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the best overall ball of his career. And he's also overseen the overhaul of a defense that now sits at number five in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more impressively, he has mastered the off-field aspects, which wasn't a certainty following his early public appearances and some of his preseason moves.

The coach took over Jacksonville with an exceptionally inexperienced coaching staff. Unlike Johnson, who packed themselves with the ideal staff cocktail of youth and veteran savvy, he hired newbies. From the head coach himself to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are filled with rookies. That type of setup is exciting in theory, but frequently fails in practice – as past failures are a warning – because everybody is learning a new job on the fly. But Coen has pulled the entire group and all elements together.

Following an initial hot beginning, there was a chance that the season would veer off the track. A mid-year collapse caused the Jags wobbling once more. That's typically when leaders panic and change too much. Coen didn't. Rather, he streamlined the approach. The offense stopped pursuing explosive plays and started seeking sustainable ones. The coach recentered the attack around key players and the ground attack, and encouraged Lawrence to use his mobility more often.

The results are obvious. The Jags have won seven games consecutively and will be the conference's No 3 seed. Coen gets the tiniest knock in the rankings because he inherited a talented roster, but he has proven he can maximize that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Each Coach of the Year case has a defining decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB choice.

Parting ways from a veteran, signing a different signal-caller and partnering him with an innovative offensive coordinator could have derailed the season in October. Instead, it shaped it. Through the mid point of the year, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player contender. He has cooled off after that time, dropping to 23rd in efficiency per dropback over the second half of the season, placing him only one spot ahead of peers.

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