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A decade after the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that polarised the country and caused disorder, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

Policymakers and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is equipped.

That represents the warning from two respected journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Institutions Unprepared

The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially fraught and transformative public vote.

"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."

New Title Seeks to Stir Debate

The duo have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a roadshow of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.

"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.

"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you end up with an highly split population where the losing side are resistant to losing and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."

Legal Framework

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would support.

Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is approaching, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a referendum.

Lack of Informed Dialogue

Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has masked the absence of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.

"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in academia but hardly any government figures or campaigners are willing to participate with even the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"

Book's Approach

In the book, neither author endorses unification or the status quo. Both writes two pieces that aim for impartiality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the case against, marshalling financial and societal data, historical precedents and constitutional models.

Arguments encompass identity markers, taxes, health services, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and provoke discussion.

"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a discussion," said the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."

Dual Referendums

A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens report they favour unification but reject increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.

"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.

Likelihood of Public Vote

McBride thinks a national vote in his era is possible and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent government minister who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"

Both nationalists and unionists have credible, valid points, he stated. "One side will succeed here and the other side will eventually lose but both parties has possesses something to acquire from the opposing viewpoints."

Call for Wider Discussion

Westminster needed to engage with the debate, stated O’Toole. "This is about your state. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."